Shalom from Israel! When I published this newsletter last week, Israel was on the brink of a major retaliation against Iran for the historically large UAV, cruise missile, and ballistic missile attack of April 13. But just as the finishing touches were being put on the newsletter, I heard rumors of an alternative option. In return for the US imposing strong sanctions on Iran, approving military actions against Rafah, and transferring financial aid to Israel, the Israeli government would hold off on its intended attack. I made it clear that I was not a fan of that course of action but said that it might be slightly more palatable if a fourth item was added to that list – some sort of military retaliation, even if it is minor, must be taken by Israel against Iran.
In the early hours of the next morning, Israel struck. But instead of the massive retaliation expected, it was a tempered strike. Small quadcopter drones were sent into Iran to confuse the air defenses. These were followed by Israeli Air Force (IAF) jet fighters that fired missiles at the Shikari base in Isfahan destroying the air defense systems deployed to protect the Natanz nuclear facility 150 km away. Compared to what was originally discussed, it was certainly a minor strike.
Why didn’t Israel exploit this perfect opportunity to destroy Iran’s nuclear sites? There are two primary factors that led to them holding back. First, the US administration was dead set against it. If the previous president was still in office, this last week would have been very different. Actually, under the previous administration, Iran never would have had the chutzpah to launch their attack to begin with. But we must work with what is, rather than with what might have been. Prime Minister Netanyahu and his administration are dealing with an extremely complex international situation. While it is easy to say, as I have often done, just go in and blow Iran’s nuclear capabilities to pieces, there would be huge ramifications for Israel doing so. I still believe that there will come a time when we will be forced to act alone in this realm, but I understand the PM’s need to keep relations with the US strong. This is primarily true due to the second factor below.
Israel is already fighting a war, and that war is only going to get bigger. If you think that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) are nearing the end because they’ve already worked their way through northern and central Gaza and are now ramping up to move into Rafah (southern Gaza), you are missing the bigger picture. Once we are done with Gaza in the south, that is when we will need to turn our full focus onto Lebanon and Syria in the north and the West Bank. What we will find awaiting us there is a much better funded, much better trained, and much better weaponed terrorist military in Hezbollah. We will also be facing multiple Iranian proxy militias in Syria. This is not the time we can say to our allies who are helping supply us with munitions, “Forget what you say, we’re going off on our own.” Again, that day will come, but it is not today.
What benefits came from Israel tempering its response? The US House approved a foreign aid package on Saturday night that included $26 billion in wartime aid to Israel. On Tuesday night, the senate approved that bill. Second, the US has signed off on Israel moving into Rafah to finish the work against Hamas. Finally, Iran has received the message from Israel, “Now you know that we have the capability to destroy your nuclear facilities any time we choose.”
Again, am I fully satisfied with Israel’s retaliation against Iran? No. But I understand it, and I respect the incredibly difficult waters through which Netanyahu and his cabinet must navigate. Amir Tsarfati
Street Address
City, State, Zip
Phone Number
Your Custom Text Here